There's not really going to be a lot happening in the presidential race over the summer. While political junkies will follow things, most voters won't, so all the noise about Obama's alleged flip flops and such aren't very important.
Barring some dramatic event like a terror attack, what will be important is the organizing going on under the radar.
All indications are that Obama's campaign is busy building up its on-the-ground strength in all 50 states. Meanwhile, the McCain campaign is reorganizing its top echelons for the third time. Naturally it's way too early to make predictions, but clearly an impartial observer would have to say that any candidate would rather be in Obama's position than McCain's.
There's some rumblings that an actual landslide might be in the offing. So far as I know, all those suggestions see the landslide going one way -- in Obama's favor. If McCain wins, it will be in a tight race, or so the conventional wisdom goes. That does seem the way to bet. But it's too early to bet.