Despite what you might believe from watching movies such as Deep Impact or Armageddon, we're not likely to have months or a year to prepare to take a catastrophic meteor impact.
As this story relates: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.783c3aae6eb418393fc6f8c443ef6765.2f1&show_article=1
a sizable rock just flew by us this weekend.
If it had hit it would have been as big a blast as the famous 1908 event that flattened a Siberian forest. Now, the Earth is a big place and it's more likely than not that something like that would end up exploding over the ocean, a pole, the Sahara or Himalayas or Siberia again and not over India, coastal China, Paris or New York --but do we feel that lucky?
The story said that the rock flew by Monday and had been detected only Saturday! This suggests that, given the time needed to calculate trajectories and get the word out, average people would have had, at best, a little more than a day to get ready.
Showing posts with label space. Show all posts
Showing posts with label space. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Friday, April 25, 2008
Almost extinct? Implications for SETI
According to some recent research, modern humans may have been close to extinction 70,000 years ago, reduced to a few as 2,000 individuals.
See http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D908GE800&show_article=1
for details.
There's a lot to chew on here, but one thing I think this illustrates is that the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) may be up against longer odds than may be supposed at first glance.
I think it will turn out that life is pretty common in the universe. Indeed, given the right conditions, it's probably an inevitable natural process.
What is not inevitable is that "intelligent" life will involve. And especially the peculiar kind of intelligence that will result in a "civilization" that might leave detectable traces for outside observers.
This news suggests that Earth came within a hairs-breadth of losing the one species it spawned in 6 billion years capable of such a civilization in a drought 70,000 years ago. Had those few thousand individuals been a little less lucky than they actually were, Earth would, right now, still be thinly populated with roving bands of primitive hominids and some marine mammals with reasonable intelligence but no "civilization." That state of affairs had already lasted many millions of years and could last millions more without change. There's no reason to think that Neanderthals or Homo Erectus populations already existing would have made the same cultural leaps that Homo Sapiens managed since the near-extinction event. There's quite a bit of mystery involved even in the Homo Sapiens cultural explosion that started about 30,000 years ago, and if we ever understand that it may turn out that it turned on some fairly subtle development that was no sure thing, either.
My point is that, while life is common, and "intelligent" life not exceedingly rare, "civilized" life (not meant in any pejorative sense at all) may be very rare indeed. The universe is so vast I think it would be presumptuous to declare that it has happened only once (here) and no where else. But I don't think it's off the mark to suggest that it happens so rarely that the civilizations are too far apart in space and time to ever make contact.
See http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D908GE800&show_article=1
for details.
There's a lot to chew on here, but one thing I think this illustrates is that the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) may be up against longer odds than may be supposed at first glance.
I think it will turn out that life is pretty common in the universe. Indeed, given the right conditions, it's probably an inevitable natural process.
What is not inevitable is that "intelligent" life will involve. And especially the peculiar kind of intelligence that will result in a "civilization" that might leave detectable traces for outside observers.
This news suggests that Earth came within a hairs-breadth of losing the one species it spawned in 6 billion years capable of such a civilization in a drought 70,000 years ago. Had those few thousand individuals been a little less lucky than they actually were, Earth would, right now, still be thinly populated with roving bands of primitive hominids and some marine mammals with reasonable intelligence but no "civilization." That state of affairs had already lasted many millions of years and could last millions more without change. There's no reason to think that Neanderthals or Homo Erectus populations already existing would have made the same cultural leaps that Homo Sapiens managed since the near-extinction event. There's quite a bit of mystery involved even in the Homo Sapiens cultural explosion that started about 30,000 years ago, and if we ever understand that it may turn out that it turned on some fairly subtle development that was no sure thing, either.
My point is that, while life is common, and "intelligent" life not exceedingly rare, "civilized" life (not meant in any pejorative sense at all) may be very rare indeed. The universe is so vast I think it would be presumptuous to declare that it has happened only once (here) and no where else. But I don't think it's off the mark to suggest that it happens so rarely that the civilizations are too far apart in space and time to ever make contact.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Lost opportunities
Next year will be the 40th anniversary of the first Moon landing.
I remember how excited I was, watching television reports of that historic event. It was one of humanity's great achievements.
Little did I realize that we would then squander the next four decades. As a matter of fact, right now NASA's plans don't call for a return to the Moon until 2020, which means the 50th anniversary will come and go before man sets foot on the Moon again. What a shameful shortsightedness.
Yeah, I know there are people who argue that we should solve our problems down here first. That's so stupid it barely deserves a response. By that standard we would never do anything, because there will always be problems here on Earth. Meanwhile we will have spent a trillion dollars on a pointless war in Iraq. For a trillion bucks I'm pretty sure we could have a whole Moon base, let alone a simple visit, dammit.
I remember how excited I was, watching television reports of that historic event. It was one of humanity's great achievements.
Little did I realize that we would then squander the next four decades. As a matter of fact, right now NASA's plans don't call for a return to the Moon until 2020, which means the 50th anniversary will come and go before man sets foot on the Moon again. What a shameful shortsightedness.
Yeah, I know there are people who argue that we should solve our problems down here first. That's so stupid it barely deserves a response. By that standard we would never do anything, because there will always be problems here on Earth. Meanwhile we will have spent a trillion dollars on a pointless war in Iraq. For a trillion bucks I'm pretty sure we could have a whole Moon base, let alone a simple visit, dammit.
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