Saturday, May 10, 2008


Well the tide's coming in now. Every news organization had a slightly different count, but they all seem to agree Obama has overtaken Clinton in the Superdelegate count.

I never thought for a minute that the superdelegates would turn around and give Clinton the nomination barring some huge disaster involving Obama. Clearly most of them were going to wait until someone established themselves as the winner. Obama has done that. The most reluctant supers will switch over once Obama passes the 50% of pledged delegates milestone. The rest once he passes the magic number. After that happens some deal will be reached on Michigan and Florida so they get to seat some portion of their delegation -- probably all their supers and half their pledged. They probably won't get all because the Democrats still want to make their party discipline point. A little discipline would do the Dems some good. It's been one of their biggest problems dealing with the Republicans, who are nothing if not disciplined.
On the other hand, the GOP could use a little more dissident spirit. Some ability to say "no" might have stopped their lemming-like following of Bush over the electoral cliff.

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